Gold..getting a bit over confident?

As i write we are seeing a nice little bounce up to the 38.2% Fib RT on gold after a nice sell-off. This has been a very busy week and especially today..hence my lack of posts and as i sit here with a full ashtray and a thumping headache from too much screen time, i am considering all the price action i have seen today. $ weakness against the J-yen, $ strength against the Swissy but overall i still cant get my head round the Euro and it's relentless fall. I suppose i should have had a bit of the short action over the last few weeks but i have not touched it with a 'barge pole'. The main reason being if i can't see an active fork and price action between the lines and the fork then i have no idea of price direction other than the general trend. In other words there is no way in to the market with a high probability trade setup...for me at least. I struggle with timing of all my trades and if you read most of the blog posts you will see that my analysis is more often than not right and i am rightly proud of being able to see the right 'map' of multiple ML's which i use in all time frames ..However, that means nothing because if you entry is ill timed then it doesn't matter which way the market is going you just get stopped out unless you are one of those people who has enough money to trade high TF's and use massive stops.I am not like that and timing is probably the most important discipline i need to work on. Not just impatience which is also a trade killer but the study of bar/candle price action is paramount and to spend 8-12 hrs a day infront of your screens does teach you about price structure and patterns. You know when you have entered a trade correctly because price rarely goes against you for any length of time and you are usually able to bring your stop to B/E very quickly.