Friday 16 April 2010

Re previous Crude Oil Trade: Bollinger Bands as a confirmation tool

I thought i would explain what i meant this morning when i said in the posting " Use Bollinger Band for confirmation for trade entry".
Firstly let me say that i make and offer no apologies for the way i draw Median Lines and use indicators and some would say that the Mauve/Magenta Median Line /pitchfork i drew on the oil chart was bollocks and incorrect re the laws of Alan Andrews. I would say that i draw these ML's in low time frames (before any new swing low/high would normally warrant them being drawn) as a way of finding support/resistance and market direction. If you go back into yesterdays posts( May Crude Oil) and look at the mauve magenta dotted ML/pitchfork it seemed pretty obvious that price was going lower but still we had a new SL at 84.65 and price started to move sideways or what is sometimes called 'walk the line'. The LMLP was in effect a trend line on which price found support. Price made no attempt to reach the centre line so the obvious conclusion to drawn is that price was either going lower or would continue to 'walk the line' and then rally to the centre line and either succeed or fail. Remember that i use multiple ML's/pitchforks in multiple time frames and correlate price behavior between them. As per my posts yesterday i was bearish and suggested that if price fell through the LMLP then a retest ( rather than a sell on stop entry) would be a better opportunity to sell and get short with higher probability. Price then fell through the mauve/magenta LMLP and came back to retest the line.
in 5,15 & 30 min charts above you can see price retouch and its location relevant to the Bolly Bands. They work well (for me especially in a sideways non trending market) as one of a dozen confirmation indicators i use in my trading toolbox/my style and the results can be seen above.
In the 5min chart price moves sideways with a contracting band/ squeeze and price pops its head just above the B-band.. bang on the LMLP. Again this is re-confirmed by the 15 & 30 min charts but in these price only makes it to the centre of the bands and then drops away sharply.
I am not a expert by any means on Billinger Bands but use them (when suitable) in conjunction with ML's/pitchforks as a confirmation tool with good results.

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