I have always been unlucky trading stock indices emini S& P, NQ's and to a lesser extent Gold. Because of this i am wary of this market and here is a good illustration why. Today i have been corresponding with someone who wanted to know my opinion ( for what its' worth!) and wanted to know if we are going higher. I gave the usual spiel about price making higher highs and higher lows and some of the indicators are positive plus Fib support and so on.Yada-yada-yada.......so by the time i saw the retouch a few hours ago (and having been talking price up) i was almost 'chomping at the bit' to get in there and 'fill my boots' at the retouch (1122.25$) on the top of the magenta down sloping UMLP....and a great re-touch it was too and price has now moved higher to 1125 as i write.
Then i had a look at a few higher time frames and indicators and checked my anchor points and
said well......what if we shift P0 back right up to the high of 1226.30$ back on December 3rd 09.....then Mod Schiff it and see what we get (see the 240min chart).....Now look at the 60min chart. The UMLP of this new Mod Schiffed ML set defines (with a perfect touch) the high of 1133.35 within the last 24hrs and not only that on the centre line of this MS ML set we have another perfect area of price support and many centre line price touches. Ok, if i was long on the retouch i would in the money already but not by much and i now think that there is a new customer in the game in the form of this Mod Schiffed ML set. Ok, i hear people say 'what a crock of *****' as price hasn't returned (yet) to the centre line and if anything that's bullish in itself. I agree BUT price is still close-ish to the LMLP of the up sloping ML set where we touched the bottom MLP twice late last week. Look...i maybe right i maybe wrong. I really do not know..no one does but in the light of this i guess i will keep the money in the account and watch. It all looks too good to be true and there's no market with more of the 'herd' instinct than Gold but perhaps all that glistens is not gold in this case.....time will tell and there are other markets with many opportunities to watch and having already taken a profit from a gold trade i am happy not to jump straight back in and give it back.
said well......what if we shift P0 back right up to the high of 1226.30$ back on December 3rd 09.....then Mod Schiff it and see what we get (see the 240min chart).....Now look at the 60min chart. The UMLP of this new Mod Schiffed ML set defines (with a perfect touch) the high of 1133.35 within the last 24hrs and not only that on the centre line of this MS ML set we have another perfect area of price support and many centre line price touches. Ok, if i was long on the retouch i would in the money already but not by much and i now think that there is a new customer in the game in the form of this Mod Schiffed ML set. Ok, i hear people say 'what a crock of *****' as price hasn't returned (yet) to the centre line and if anything that's bullish in itself. I agree BUT price is still close-ish to the LMLP of the up sloping ML set where we touched the bottom MLP twice late last week. Look...i maybe right i maybe wrong. I really do not know..no one does but in the light of this i guess i will keep the money in the account and watch. It all looks too good to be true and there's no market with more of the 'herd' instinct than Gold but perhaps all that glistens is not gold in this case.....time will tell and there are other markets with many opportunities to watch and having already taken a profit from a gold trade i am happy not to jump straight back in and give it back.
PS: I also do not like the look of the chart formation...we could be on the RHS of the 'mountain coming down.
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