Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Welcome back! E mini S &P, US$, Grains, precious metals etc... Are you ready for the next trend?

Welcome back! It's been a shocking summer for trading especially the eminis and speaking personally  have really been keeping my powder dry for the coming months. The good and the great all return to their desks over the next few weeks and in the US it's Labor day that marks the exodus back to the office where great flows of capital and cash restart and interpretation of current fundamentals will emerge as coherent strategies and new trends. If you want the macro economic picture and fundamentals then this is not the site for you but if you want some interesting technical linear studies then look below:

The E mini S & P: Here are two simple charts with three visible pitchforks without their reaction lines from high time frames. There is no doubt the black down sloping PF's upper median line parallel has resisted price and we have since fallen away from those late July/early August highs with the big QE debate and indifferent US data being blamed for the recent uncertainty. Of course we are supposed to be heading for the black centre line which is approx at 1575 but there is no guarantee we will make it. Look at the blue PF and remember that we never touched the CL at 1550 and promptly rallied upwards ( as per Andrews theory) towards and just above 1700. There is also the green PF whose lower MLP has already supported price once and may do so again but as with all lines the angle is important and the probability of a new pivot being formed is directly proportionate to how close to a horizontal attitude any line posesses. This neatly bring me to a monthly TF PF of which you can see just one horizontal dark grey median line bang on the 1600 area which has already proved itself a winner with multiple examples of great price distribution around it. These are just a few of the lines that will make up the organic support and resistance that price will be moving through in the coming weeks and months. As for the finer detail of the matrix through which price will be moving  you need more detailed and dedicated  studies which are availble on my website and when you have those... well, you need to know how to use them.

What will be revealed in the coming weeks i have no idea. Perhaps a false break out upwards then a savage sell off? Perhaps the market will not wait until September but will kick off before?

Here's the current emini Dow ( Sep13) 4 hr with reaction lines ( all drawn using the free MT4 custom PF tool) and one in particular shows tremendous correlation with recent price action.

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