Monday, 20 May 2013

E mini S &P plus the USDX

Question: What happens when we get confirmation of the easing of the QE stimulus ending as it surely must?

The emini S & P -much to my surprise- shows little sign of easing its almost vertical trajectory. Sadly this can only end in tears -but when and how much more is on the table. The financial markets are littered with the corpses of bearish analysts who have stood firm in the path of mega trends and the sad fact is that not only have they been wrong but they have not shared in the bounty that these bubbles offer and i am reminded of the maxim that the top and bottom 10% of every trend are the most dangerous and no one needs that 10%. Not only this but also I have observed that often the last and or final leg up of a trend is often volatile and sharp or a 'run-away'. We all recognise that this move is overblown and the trend is more than slightly hysterical but technically every sign tells me that price is still strong.  Last Fridays (17th May) move up is a classic example. Using simple PF's in multiple TF's you can see that price is still buoyant. However I am now confused as to our near term objective and spent part of this last weekend looking at other US and global equity charts to try to get a grip on this problem. Personally I do not care if we go up or down as long as we have a clear direction to trade and can find a way into that trend and whilst the trend direction is obvious I am unable to get long right now. Since the middle of last week at and around 1655 I simply am uneasy at the lack of a retracement- even a weak one. When the retracement comes it could very easily turn into a rout but there maybe another 80 big points on the upside table to 'feast' on  first. I will watch todays session to see what unfolds and if there is a way out of this dilema.

Lastly, the USDX's CL target area of 85.00 and above is clear by comparison to the confused ES

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