Tuesday, 7 May 2013

E mini S & P.. retracement? What retracement?!

Price has and is giving us the clearest indication that it has every intention of moving higher. Now, having said that it will probably spike lower first- just for the fun of it but even if it does unless we start to see warning signs i remain firmly bullish and will only trade from the long side. I am disappointed that we haven't seen a slightly deeper retracment but all the d/sloping forks that can be drawn off the post NFP data/bars show the same light centre line touch or kiss and then back up.As I write this at 11am London we are sitting at  1615 and suspect about to make a HH. If we go lower before after WS opening it is not a sign of weakness and we will resume our move higher at some point. But...how to trade ES at these levels? Time is a most neglected factor and just like an apple falls from the tree only when it is ready and has separated (abscised) from the stalk; Price is similarly effected by time and moves in relation to time.We can expect a move today or tomorrow based on simple bar counts. Everyone learns quickly that trends do not turn round 'on a sixpence' or reverse within a few bars. Likewise if you examine the past big moves up like we saw on Friday after NFP's you will always see different patterns of consolidation before a move either way but time seems to bind these moves together and the price action that follows them in whatever direction. I still do not think we fully understand the relationship between price and time.
All this being said today we are heading towards the blue centre line in the chart shown below ( TOP). The price when we arrive  will depend on our speed of trajectory (bar length) and time taken to get there. Today it sits at  about 1627 but I also have my eye on the confluence of the blue CL and the black MLP ( again seen below) which is bang on 1630.00. However if we cannot keep the current trend/momentum of NFP's data we may have to come lower again. Considering how important 1600 is psychologically as well as technically I am not sure we are done with it yet and certainly I am looking for a short term high pivot - ideally 1630 before some violence is unleashed on the downside and we go lower to see how firm the support base is at 1600 and underneath it.! But before then we still have the upside open for another strong day... but for how long will this last before the momentum fades?
Watch todays video available from just 2pm London 9am EST

plus if you want a real laugh read this ( if i had a trading record like this i would be sacked)

Bloomberg News

Paulson Said to Lose 27% in Gold Fund Last Month in Rout

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