Thursday, 2 May 2013

E Mini S & P: I am getting nervous the trend maybe about to stall + UPDATE 2pm EST

UPDATE VIDEO 2PM NY/US EST.. "what a difference a day makes" as the famous Dinah Washington song goes...well what a difference a few hours make to what i wrote below at the time of the ECB rate decision

No one ever said it was going to be easy pushing through 1600 and those of us who have been around a while and have seen  previous big trend start to turn are also worried. Throw into this mix containing an  uncertain  technical picture a new and  growing awareness in the investment banking industry that we may have peaked at 1600 plus the weakening economic data and you have a recipe for a perfect storm. I will leave the fundamentals arguments to others who can talk the hind legs of a donkey on the macro economics but lets look at the charts and the price data contained therein plus also let me draw your attention to the B-line slow and fast stochastics ( called the ribbons: 7,3,3/ 5,3,3 and 9,3,3 I add an extra set which for me aids visually but Buffy uses just the 5,3,3 and 9,3,3 plus the long stoch or "B line)which look very threatening in the daily and weekly charts. They show what i call the "waterfall" position...about to fall after cresting at the top. We have just seen a complete failure to reach the CL of this purple fork after an initial spike on ECB rate decision:
I have a growing and nagging doubt that we may see a vicious move lower in the next few days. I was surprised ( and stopped out) by yesterdays correction lower but I am not sure we have seen the worst of it.
Take a look at these two charts showing the bundle of down sloping reaction lines that has caused yesterdays fall and indeed if you look back before yesterday you will see a good reaction line correlation with price throughout the history displayed.

Now, as for today? I am waiting for the opening at 2.30 BST, 9.30 USA EST but it looks extremely worrying after this mauve ( grey in the RL charts)  forks failure......beware. ( video to follow at 4pm London)

The song What a difference a day makes!!

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